Murilo Oliveira
Brazil, April 10, 2022.
At this time of night in Brazil we can already see the results of the French first round. With 93% of the votes counted, the centrist Emmanuel Macron had 27.4% of the votes counted, and the far-right Marine Le Pen 24.1% of the votes counted. While the ultra-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who was ahead among French 18-34 year olds, reached 21.4%.
Here I want to point out Brazilian issues, and this brings us to the number of people entitled to vote in France and who did not. In today’s election, this index was very high, as it appears until the moment of the calculation, 26% is the estimate of abstention. It is important to note that voting is not mandatory in France.
What I mean? The 2002 case in France is quite emblematic of the highest abstention rate in French history, 28.4% in 2002. And what happened in that 2002 election? There was an atmosphere of “Already Won” in relation to Lionel Jospin, and what happened was the massive non-attendance of his electorate, causing Jospin not even to reach the second round, when Jean Marie Le Pen probably because of this voter abstention for Jospin reaches the second round to compete with Jacques Chirac.
What do we extract from here? That in reality no one can be taken by the atmosphere of “Already Won”, as well as the optional vote in theory exempts voters from the left. But this is merely a thesis, the fact consists in having a result that does not match solid majorities. The “Simple Man” is also a voter of the extreme right, in France today the ultra-right and ultra-left are similar in some dimension of the facts. Although possibly like in 2002, when Jospin’s voter ran in the second round for Chirac, this supposedly logical move could be considered again.
It is solid to say that the climate of “Already Won” undermines any of the hypotheses, in the same way that it results in abstention in some places. It was not in the recent past absolutely strange that the young cosmopolitan Londoner keen to support his place, that thing of ecological and multicultural people, taking for granted the permanence in the European Union, has let only elderly ladies from the UK countryside vote and has been abstention.
@CoexistenceLaw
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