{"id":2194,"date":"2025-12-20T11:46:47","date_gmt":"2025-12-20T14:46:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coexistencelaw.org\/?p=2194"},"modified":"2025-12-20T16:26:32","modified_gmt":"2025-12-20T19:26:32","slug":"15-primaveras-15-springs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coexistencelaw.org\/?p=2194","title":{"rendered":"15 Primaveras (15 Springs)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Murilo Jambeiro de Oliveira<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brasil, 20 de dezembro de 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-4-3 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Manifesta\u00e7\u00e3o no Congresso Nacional 17 de junho de 2013\" width=\"696\" height=\"522\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/fz8wUs7VRZw?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Manifesta\u00e7\u00e3o no Congresso Nacional 17 de junho de 2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A Primavera \u00c1rabe faz 15 anos. De certo modo, existe como estrat\u00e9gia de guerra norte-americana muito em geral e as vezes mais caracter\u00edstica de uma de um partido e outra de outra, o fratric\u00eddio ou enviar tropas de fato. Analisando friamente, a Primavera \u00c1rabe me pareceu uma esp\u00e9cie de promo\u00e7\u00e3o do fratric\u00eddio, \u00e9 muito comum em lugares onde &#8220;clanifica\u00e7\u00e3o&#8221; \u00e9 muito extremada. A divis\u00e3o entre muitos cl\u00e3s rivais em um mesmo pa\u00eds, como nos pa\u00edses \u00e1rabes. Me lembro inclusive que os avi\u00e3o de ca\u00e7a Gripen de Muammar Gaddafi foram muito facilmente derrubados nas primeiras horas de guerra. A quest\u00e3o \u00e9 que o envio de tropas n\u00e3o \u00e9 menos infeliz em alguma dimens\u00e3o de coisas, o que se constata ao logo da hist\u00f3ria, e digo isso porque o fratric\u00eddio cria situa\u00e7\u00f5es insol\u00faveis por muito tempo na maioria dos casos. O envio de tropas mostrou ou longo do tempo o quanto \u00e9 doloroso quando a chaga da guerra retorna para casa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No Brasil eu observo um movimento curioso, que talvez n\u00e3o tenha rela\u00e7\u00e3o com o movimento atual, mas sim com impeachment de Dilma Rousseff. O video acima tem muita import\u00e2ncia quanto a isso, sobre a Manifesta\u00e7\u00e3o no Congresso Nacional de 17 de junho de 2013, primeiro porque a maior e mais pac\u00edfica e respeitosa manifesta\u00e7\u00e3o j\u00e1 feita ali em toda a hist\u00f3ria, os estudantes, quase todos muito jovens, n\u00e3o invadiram o Congresso Nacional, se quer quebraram uma janela. Foram at\u00e9 ali e pararam as portas do Congresso Nacional, como resultante de um processo de seguidas passeatas contra o aumento de 20 centavos nas passagens dos \u00f4nibus, que tomou todo o pa\u00eds, as maiores manifesta\u00e7\u00f5es j\u00e1 vistas no Brasil democr\u00e1tico, que moveu milh\u00f5es e milh\u00f5es de pessoas, sem que as mesmas tenham sido punidas ou acusadas de serem antidemocr\u00e1ticas. Qual \u00e9 a quest\u00e3o, que Petra Costa, novamente com chances ao Oscar de 2026, agora sim falando de um fen\u00f4meno preciso, em sua indica\u00e7\u00e3o anterior de &#8220;Democracia Em Vertigem&#8221; solenemente ignora 2013? Era uma esp\u00e9cie de fratric\u00eddio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eu mesmo naquele 2013 n\u00e3o me mobilizo ir as ruas, nem mesmo em Guaratinguet\u00e1, e as pessoas iam em 2013 as ruas em todo o pa\u00eds, de todas as colora\u00e7\u00f5es partid\u00e1rias, aos milh\u00f5es e milh\u00f5es em todas as Capitais do pa\u00eds, cada vez mais. Eu adoto outra filosofia, eu come\u00e7o a me perguntar onde foi parar o Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira, e onde foi parar o salutar acordo com o Partido dos Trabalhadores, ent\u00e3o no governo, em algo que na elei\u00e7\u00e3o de Dilma me parece de certo modo a inexist\u00eancia de um acordo de cavaleiros. Uma postura t\u00e3o minorit\u00e1ria, que chega a incomodar alguns at\u00e9 os dias de hoje, assim explicado. Mas cabe mais explica\u00e7\u00e3o, \u00e9 minha cria, em certo sentido sem sombra de duvida \u00e9 minha cria pacifista mais abrangente poss\u00edvel de a\u00e7\u00e3o lenta e dolorosa. O que quero dizer com isso? O que disse no artigo &#8220;Como Apagar um Inc\u00eandio&#8221; no Blog CoexistenceLaw.Org ( <a href=\"https:\/\/coexistencelaw.org\/?p=2166\">https:\/\/coexistencelaw.org\/?p=2166<\/a> ). Que eu intitulo inspirado num dito muito celebre do Professor Edson Passetti da Pontif\u00edcia Universidade Cat\u00f3lica de S\u00e3o Paulo, que ele repetia a exaust\u00e3o enquanto ensinava sobre o anarquismo: &#8220;Os maiores incendi\u00e1rios ser\u00e3o os melhores bombeiros&#8221;. N\u00e3o imaginava que no dia seguinte haveria um r\u00e1pido inc\u00eandio na COP30 no Par\u00e1. Realmente falava da PUC-SP e me inspirava nesse ditado, que entre muitos, \u00e9 um c\u00e9lebre em todo o Movimento Estudantil daquele lugar. Vou chegar no ponto, filio a essa manifesta\u00e7\u00e3o descrita brevemente por mim no primeiro semestre do 2004, segundo ano de Governo Lula, uma s\u00e9rie de manifesta\u00e7\u00f5es do Movimento Estudantil pac\u00edficas e incrivelmente abrangentes, como o que chama o lugar em U2 canta &#8220;All Along The Watchtower&#8221; e &#8220;God&#8217;s Land&#8221; (onde estou at\u00e9 hoje e desde 2007 longe do ativismo politico do Movimento Estudantil), mas o local chama-se &#8220;Justin Herman Plaza&#8221; como a Secret\u00e1rio Estadual de Educa\u00e7\u00e3o que aqui em Guaratinguet\u00e1 mora, \u00e9 pr\u00f3ximo de mim desde a inf\u00e2ncia, e teve que lidar com mais de 200 escolas p\u00fablicas de segundo grau ocupadas, em um dos dois movimentos que ocorrem como via de consequ\u00eancia pac\u00edfica e abrangente que tende a ser Movimento Estudantil, e d\u00e1 cria de daquele meu 2004 tanto nessa dimens\u00e3o de organiza\u00e7\u00e3o secundarista, quando muitos de meus colegas j\u00e1 s\u00e3o Professores, assim como as grandes passeatas de 2013, ressalte-se, o imenso desdobramento pac\u00edfico de fatos an\u00e1logos desde sua g\u00eanese.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Voltamos agora ao que estava falando dos 15 anos da Primavera \u00c1rabe, que eu creio que tem essa conforma\u00e7\u00e3o de coisas bastante mais grave, uma politica norte-americana que n\u00e3o querendo enviar tropas, e trazer a chaga da guerra para dentro de casa, promove ali com certeza, fratric\u00eddios. Meu momento exemplar do fato n\u00e3o \u00e9 Muammar Gaddafi sendo linchado, mas sim uma Pra\u00e7a Tahir no Egito que resiste dias e dias em meio a tanques de guerra, que v\u00e3o gradativamente tomando o partido do povo, gradativamente crescendo e crescendo como uma pir\u00e2mide, at\u00e9 a troca de governo eg\u00edpcia, com muito menos desgaste do que poderia ter. Algo que eu compararia a resultante brasileira do impeachment de Dilma Rousseff. Um tipo de pr\u00e1tica politica para o mundo e para a Am\u00e9rica Latina, espec\u00edfico. Mais tendentes da Democratas se eu for ser sincero, assim como se eu for ser sincero Republicanos s\u00e3o muito mais tendentes a enviar tropas para o campo de batalha. Como est\u00e3o fazendo hoje na Venezuela. E curiosamente seu Presidente Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, para al\u00e9m de pedir ajuda, as vezes parece tentar envolver vizinhos, como a chamada &#8220;Grande Col\u00f4mbia&#8221;, ou mesmo o Movimento dos Trabalhadores Sem Terra no Brasil, no que todos al\u00e9m de poder ajudar muito pouco, se sentem constrangidos com o fato, ainda que fossem solid\u00e1rios. Ningu\u00e9m est\u00e1 vendo a essa hora ajuda alguma para a Venezuela, nenhum de seus vizinhos. Independente de se constrangerem ou n\u00e3o, n\u00e3o tem condi\u00e7\u00f5es de resposta militar para tal fato. Tem interesses econ\u00f4micos em comum com os Estados Unidos que essa hora nos parecem negoci\u00e1veis, e se eu fosse ser sincero quanto a bastidores da politica brasileira, pelas raz\u00f5es que explico aqui, tendeu-se que o Partido dos Trabalhadores no Brasil fosse mais pr\u00f3ximo do Partido Republicano nos Estados Unidos. Vamos dizer que por sua hist\u00f3ria sindical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A quest\u00e3o \u00e9 tal feita, que como tenho alegado at\u00e9 para a Guerra da Ucr\u00e2nia, a melhor acomoda\u00e7\u00e3o de interesses financeiros, pode e deve garantir a paz. Acordos de bastidor inclusive. Por isso eu sigo um pouco a linha do que um Padre me disse certa vez: &#8220;O problema \u00e9 o segredo.&#8221; \u00c9 curioso como esse acordos podem e terminam por acontecer nos bastidores, da mesma forma que a pr\u00f3pria Igreja daquele Padre que me disse isso tem o segredo em grande considera\u00e7\u00e3o, \u00e9 garantia de perd\u00e3o para os mesmos, e por exemplo quando eu falo de &#8220;Ordens de Cavaleiros&#8221; embora n\u00e3o perten\u00e7a a nenhuma, acredito pregar uma supera\u00e7\u00e3o do que o antecessor de Le\u00e3o XIV escreveu e publicou com virul\u00eancia contra por exemplo por exemplo a ma\u00e7onaria, o segredo, vamos dizer assim, o segredo que at\u00e9 a pr\u00f3pria Igreja pratica, em um momento que a Igreja Cat\u00f3lica o fez, porque tinha com os destinat\u00e1rios um conflito territorial naquele tempo hist\u00f3rico de Le\u00e3o XIII. Muito pouco no meu ponto de vista se aproveita de tal virul\u00eancia desse contra aquele, a n\u00e3o ser o que Maquiavel j\u00e1 dizia, os artif\u00edcios adotados, s\u00e3o determinantes do fato se chegar\u00e1 ao fim pretendido. Nem todo artif\u00edcio \u00e9 valido, e isso quem disse n\u00e3o foi Le\u00e3o XIII atacando a ma\u00e7onaria, mas sim Maquiavel ao Pr\u00edncipe tentando unificar a It\u00e1lia. A ado\u00e7\u00e3o do artif\u00edcio correto para o que se pretende como fim, \u00e9 essencial. Eu por exemplo pretendo a toler\u00e2ncia, sou Cat\u00f3lico Romano, mas por exemplo, sem que o segredo, mesmo eu pessoalmente n\u00e3o tendo tantos, \u00e9 importante, e sou tolerante e prego a toler\u00e2ncia com o mesmo, o conv\u00edvio por exemplo em situa\u00e7\u00f5es limites que determinados acordos de neg\u00f3cio ainda s\u00e3o garantidores da paz, e capazes de evitar muitas mortes. Tem um limite curioso no pacifismo que d\u00e1 cria como dizia aqui antes, que \u00e9 voc\u00ea meu leitor saber quem te deu a consci\u00eancia de uma nova juventude. Se ela foi feliz, talvez n\u00e3o, mas n\u00e3o colocamos fogo na PUC-SP, n\u00e3o pichamos nossas escolas p\u00fablicas, n\u00e3o quebramos uma vidra\u00e7a do Congresso Nacional brasileiro. Talvez n\u00e3o tenha sido bom para o Partido dos Trabalhadores, que nos levava a passeatas contra a Guerra do Iraque, mas estava ali junto dos Estados Unidos nos bastidores inclusive de tal ato.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>EN-US<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Arab Spring is 15 years old. In a way, there is a common American war strategy, sometimes more characteristic of one party than another, involving fratricide or sending troops. Analyzing it objectively, the Arab Spring seemed to me a kind of promotion of fratricide, very common in places where &#8220;clan division&#8221; is very extreme. The division between many rival clans in the same country, as in the Arab countries. I even remember that Muammar Gaddafi&#8217;s Gripen fighter jets were very easily shot down in the first hours of the war. The point is that sending troops is no less unfortunate in some dimension of things, as has been seen throughout history, and I say this because fratricide creates unsolvable situations for a long time in most cases. Sending troops has shown over time how painful it is when the wound of war returns home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Brazil, I observe a curious movement, which perhaps has no relation to the current movement, but rather to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. The video above is very important in this regard, concerning the demonstration at the National Congress on June 17, 2013. First, because it was the largest, most peaceful, and respectful demonstration ever held there in history. The students, almost all very young, did not invade the National Congress, nor did they break a single window. They went there and stopped the doors of the National Congress, as a result of a series of marches against the 20-cent increase in bus fares, which swept the entire country. These were the largest demonstrations ever seen in democratic Brazil, mobilizing millions and millions of people, without them being punished or accused of being anti-democratic. What is the issue that Petra Costa, again with a chance at the 2026 Oscars, now speaking of a precise phenomenon, solemnly ignores in her previous nomination for &#8220;The Edge of Democracy&#8221; in 2013? It was a kind of fratricide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Back in 2013, I myself didn&#8217;t mobilize to go to the streets, not even in Guaratinguet\u00e1, while millions of people were taking to the streets all over the country in 2013, from all political parties, in all the capitals, increasingly so. I adopted a different philosophy; I began to wonder where the Brazilian Social Democracy Party had gone, and where the healthy agreement with the Workers&#8217; Party, then in government, had gone\u2014something that, in Dilma&#8217;s election, seems to me to be a kind of non-existent gentleman&#8217;s agreement. Such a minority stance, which bothers some even to this day, as explained. But more explanation is needed; it&#8217;s my creation, in a certain sense, without a doubt, my most comprehensive pacifist creation possible, of slow and painful action. What do I mean by that? What I said in the article &#8220;How to Put Out a Fire&#8221; on the CoexistenceLaw.Org Blog (<a href=\"https:\/\/coexistencelaw.org\/?p=2166\">https:\/\/coexistencelaw.org\/?p=2166<\/a>). I titled this inspired by a very famous saying of Professor Edson Passetti from the Pontifical Catholic University of S\u00e3o Paulo, which he repeated ad nauseam while teaching about anarchism: &#8220;The greatest arsonists will be the best firefighters.&#8221; I didn&#8217;t imagine that the next day there would be a quick fire at COP30 in Par\u00e1. I was indeed talking about PUC-SP and was inspired by this saying, which, among many, is famous throughout the Student Movement there. I&#8217;ll get to the point. I link this demonstration, briefly described by me in the first semester of 2004, the second year of Lula&#8217;s government, to a series of peaceful and incredibly broad Student Movement demonstrations, like the one that calls the place where U2 sings &#8220;All Along The Watchtower&#8221; and &#8220;God&#8217;s Land&#8221; (where I am to this day, and since 2007, far from the political activism of the Student Movement), but the place is called &#8220;Justin Herman Plaza,&#8221; like the State Secretary of Education who lives here in Guaratinguet\u00e1. He&#8217;s been close to me since childhood and had to deal with more than 200 occupied public high schools, in one of the two movements that occur as a peaceful and broad consequence of what the Student Movement tends to be. This is a product of my 2004, both in this dimension of secondary school organization, when many of my colleagues are already teachers, as well as the large marches of 2013. It should be noted that the immense peaceful unfolding of analogous events has been present since its genesis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We now return to what I was saying about the 15 years of the Arab Spring, which I believe has a much more serious configuration of things: a US policy that, not wanting to send troops and bring the scourge of war into its own country, certainly promotes fratricide. My exemplary moment of this fact is not Muammar Gaddafi being lynched, but rather Tahrir Square in Egypt, which resists for days and days amidst tanks, which gradually take the side of the people, gradually growing like a pyramid, until the Egyptian government changes, with much less wear and tear than it could have. Something I would compare to the Brazilian outcome of Dilma Rousseff&#8217;s impeachment. A type of political practice for the world and for Latin America, specifically. More inclined towards the Democrats, if I&#8217;m being honest, just as, if I&#8217;m being honest, Republicans are much more inclined to send troops to the battlefield. As they are doing today in Venezuela. Interestingly, President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, besides asking for help, sometimes seems to try to involve neighbors, such as the so-called &#8220;Grande Colombia,&#8221; or even the Landless Workers&#8217; Movement in Brazil, in situations where everyone, besides being able to help very little, feels embarrassed by the fact, even if they were in solidarity. No one is seeing any help for Venezuela at this point, none of its neighbors. Regardless of whether they feel embarrassed or not, they lack the capacity for a military response to such a situation. They have common economic interests with the United States that at this point seem negotiable, and if I were to be honest about the behind-the-scenes workings of Brazilian politics, for the reasons I explain here, the Workers&#8217; Party in Brazil has tended to be closer to the Republican Party in the United States. Let&#8217;s say that&#8217;s due to its history in labor unions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The issue is such that, as I have argued even regarding the War in Ukraine, the best accommodation of financial interests can and should guarantee peace. This includes backroom deals. That&#8217;s why I somewhat follow the line of what a priest once told me: &#8220;The problem is secrecy.&#8221; It&#8217;s curious how these agreements can and do end up happening behind the scenes, just as the very Church of that priest who told me this holds secrecy in high regard; it&#8217;s a guarantee of forgiveness for them. For example, when I speak of &#8220;Orders of Knights,&#8221; although I don&#8217;t belong to any, I believe I&#8217;m advocating a surpassing of what Leo XIV&#8217;s predecessor wrote and published with virulence against, for example, Freemasonry\u2014the secrecy, let&#8217;s say, the secrecy that even the Church itself practices, at a time when the Catholic Church did so because it had a territorial conflict with its recipients during that historical period of Leo XIII. In my view, very little is gained from such virulence against that side, except for what Machiavelli already said: the artifices adopted are decisive in whether the intended end is achieved. Not every artifice is valid, and this was not said by Leo XIII attacking Freemasonry, but by Machiavelli in his attack on Italy, attempting to unify Italy. Adopting the correct artifice for the intended purpose is essential. I, for example, advocate for tolerance; I am a Roman Catholic, but for instance, without secrecy\u2014even though I personally don&#8217;t have many\u2014it is important, and I am tolerant and preach tolerance, for example, coexistence in extreme situations where certain business agreements still guarantee peace and can prevent many deaths. There is a curious limit to pacifism, as I said before, which is for you, my reader, to know who gave you the awareness of a new youth. Whether it was happy, perhaps not, but we didn&#8217;t set fire to PUC-SP, we didn&#8217;t vandalize our public schools, we didn&#8217;t break a window of the Brazilian National Congress. Perhaps it wasn&#8217;t good for the Workers&#8217; Party, which led us in marches against the Iraq War, but it was there alongside the United States, even behind the scenes of that action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>@CoexistenceLaw<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Murilo Jambeiro de Oliveira Brasil, 20 de dezembro de 2025. Manifesta\u00e7\u00e3o no Congresso Nacional 17 de junho de 2013 A Primavera \u00c1rabe faz 15 anos. De certo modo, existe como estrat\u00e9gia de guerra norte-americana muito em geral e as vezes mais caracter\u00edstica de uma de um partido e outra de outra, o fratric\u00eddio ou enviar<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/coexistencelaw.org\/?p=2194\" class=\"more-link\">Ler mais<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[762,763,761,760,764,268],"class_list":["post-2194","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-unga2021","category-preaching","tag-20-centavos","tag-20-cents","tag-arab-spring","tag-primavera-arabe","tag-uma-nova-juventude","tag-venezuela"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coexistencelaw.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2194"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coexistencelaw.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coexistencelaw.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coexistencelaw.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coexistencelaw.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2194"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/coexistencelaw.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2194\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2201,"href":"https:\/\/coexistencelaw.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2194\/revisions\/2201"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coexistencelaw.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2194"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coexistencelaw.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2194"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coexistencelaw.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2194"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}