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Murilo Jambeiro de Oliveira<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Brazil, November 14, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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The concept of “Green Wish” is quite interesting for Brazilian diplomacy, in the sense that Brazilian diplomacy\u2014and this has been a hallmark of Brazil since Rio 92 to the present day\u2014is a mark of a country with “environmental traction.” What does this mean? There is no longer any acceptable doubt that the climate crisis is a widely recognized reality throughout the world, and has been well managed for at least the last 33 years by Brazilian diplomacy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
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On the other hand, this is not a moment for optimism, and a great perception of this is precisely the apparent optimism that involves a large allocation of resources to countries that have carbon credits to sell, or that are supposedly closer to neutrality. This is not the case for the majority of the world’s population or GDP. In reality, the proposal to allocate resources, as I have already said, is not only mitigating but also dissociative. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
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The other central point is that, while Brazilian diplomacy is at the forefront of the “Green Wish” initiative, the current global climate is one of defending national interests in energy development. The world demands more electricity in all the most crucial areas of its national development, and Brazil is no different. Brazil made a choice back in the late 1990s and early 2000s, being a major oil producer, and the goal of not using fossil fuels is not yet part of our leading development policy, despite its potential in biofuels. Even China, which is a major producer of energy production infrastructure equipment that does not depend on fossil fuels, and seems to have “environmental traction” on the climate agenda today, does not have a significant reduction in fossil fuels in its short-term horizon. Instead, it intends to showcase its technology to the world. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
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That said, among the national development policies that must be considered, is the fact that, if the solution is the policy of mitigation, or even financial dissociation, of the large carbon emitters that generate large funds, the central question in Brazil at this point, in my view, is how Brazil maintains an advantage in the exchange rate of its commodity exports, especially agricultural and livestock products, even biofuels, which, among more developed agricultural techniques, constantly demand a concern with a controllable exchange rate regime, for the very defense of its currency. This leads to the reflection on whether this immense volume of mitigating, and I repeat, dissociative resources actually wants to and can flow to Brazil and not through Brazil. On average, although we readily approve of a very bold agenda, and celebrate the moment when there is consensus that global warming must be combated, the movement observed worldwide today is not reflected in everyday Brazilian national development policy. For example, what keeps us alarmed in our daily lives regarding, for instance, exchange rate fluctuations, inflation, interest rates, the energy development strategy, and macroeconomics, has little alignment with the “political traction” we have achieved worldwide on environmental issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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PT-BR<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Murilo Jambeiro de Oliveira<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Brasil, 14 de novembro de 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Bastante interessante para diplomacia brasileira o conceito de “Green Wish” no sentido de que a diplomacia brasileira, e isso fica at\u00e9 aqui como marca do Brasil desde Rio 92 at\u00e9 os dias de hoje, como marca de um pa\u00eds que tem “tra\u00e7\u00e3o ambiental”. O que isso quer dizer? N\u00e3o existe mais uma d\u00favida m\u00e9dia aceit\u00e1vel que a crise clim\u00e1tica n\u00e3o seja uma realidade amplamente reconhecida em todo o mundo, e bem conduzida nos pelo menos \u00faltimos 33 anos pela diplomacia brasileira.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Por outro lado o momento n\u00e3o \u00e9 de otimismo, e grande percep\u00e7\u00e3o disso deve ser justamente o aparente otimismo que grande aporte de recursos para os pa\u00edses que tem cr\u00e9ditos de carbono para vender, ou supostamente estariam mais pr\u00f3ximo da neutralidade. Que n\u00e3o \u00e9 a maioria da popula\u00e7\u00e3o do PIB do planeta. Na realidade a proposi\u00e7\u00e3o que incorrer em recursos como j\u00e1 disse aqui, al\u00e9m de mitigante, \u00e9 para ser dissuasiva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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O outro ponto central \u00e9, se por um lado a diplomacia brasileira \u00e9 a linha de frente do “Green Wish”, o momento em todo o mundo \u00e9 de defesa de interesses nacionais de desenvolvimento energ\u00e9tico. O mundo demanda mais energia el\u00e9trica em todas as frentes mais cruciais de seu desenvolvimento nacional, e o Brasil n\u00e3o \u00e9 diferente. O Brasil fez uma op\u00e7\u00e3o ainda l\u00e1 no final da d\u00e9cada de 90 e in\u00edcio dos anos 2000, por ser um grande produtor de petr\u00f3leo, e a meta da n\u00e3o utiliza\u00e7\u00e3o de combust\u00edveis fosseis ainda n\u00e3o \u00e9 nossa politica de desenvolvimento de proa com seu potencial em biocombust\u00edveis tamb\u00e9m. At\u00e9 mesmo a China, que \u00e9 o grande produtor de equipamentos de infraestrutura para produ\u00e7\u00e3o de energia que n\u00e3o dependem de combust\u00edveis fosseis, e parece algu\u00e9m de “tra\u00e7\u00e3o ambiental” na agenda clim\u00e1tica hoje, n\u00e3o tem no seu horizonte de curto prazo uma redu\u00e7\u00e3o apreci\u00e1vel de combust\u00edveis f\u00f3sseis. Antes pretende colocar sua tecnologia no mundo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Dito isso, entre politicas de desenvolvimento nacional que devem ser concatenados, est\u00e1 o fato de que, em havendo como solu\u00e7\u00e3o a politica de mitiga\u00e7\u00e3o, ou at\u00e9 de dissuas\u00e3o financeira, dos grandes emissores de carbono que geram grandes fundos, a pergunta central no Brasil a essa altura no meu ponto de vista \u00e9 como o Brasil mant\u00e9m uma vantagem na rela\u00e7\u00e3o cambial de suas exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de commodities, especialmente agr\u00edcolas, agropecu\u00e1rias, at\u00e9 mesmo os biocombust\u00edveis, que entre t\u00e9cnicas agr\u00edcolas mais desenvolvidas, demandam um regime constante de preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o com regime cambial control\u00e1vel, pela pr\u00f3pria defesa de sua moeda, que faz com que a reflex\u00e3o se esse imenso volume de recurso mitigantes, repito dissuasivos, querem e podem, acorrer de fato para o Brasil e n\u00e3o pelo Brasil. Na m\u00e9dia, embora aprovemos com facilidade uma agenda muito ousada, e festejemos o momento onde \u00e9 consensual que o aquecimento global deve ser combatido, o movimento em todo o mundo que observado hoje, n\u00e3o se demonstra na politica de desenvolvimento nacional brasileiro cotidiano, como por exemplo o que nos mant\u00e9m no cotidiano dom\u00e9stico alarmados quanto a por exemplo flutua\u00e7\u00f5es cambiais, e infla\u00e7\u00e3o, juros, a estrat\u00e9gia de desenvolvimento energ\u00e9tico e a macroeconomia, tem pouco alinhamento com a “tra\u00e7\u00e3o politica” que conseguimos em todo mundo na quest\u00e3o ambiental.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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@CoexistenceLaw <\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Murilo Jambeiro de Oliveira Brazil, November 14, 2025. The concept of “Green Wish” is quite interesting for Brazilian diplomacy, in the sense that Brazilian diplomacy\u2014and this has been a hallmark of Brazil since Rio 92 to the present day\u2014is a mark of a country with “environmental traction.” What does this mean? There is no longer<\/p>\n